Achieving Early Warning Systems in Vietnam

ABSTRACT
A climate-informed early warning system (EWS) can forecast high-risk conditions and enact early-response measures for infectious disease prevention. EWS is designed to generate actionable forecasts by leveraging disease-specific predictors, thereby prompting proactive measures among its users. In Ho ChiMinh City, Vietnam, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit (OUCRU) is developing a dengue EWS with an anticipated completion in 2026. Although the disease forecast system should theoretically empower local stakeholders to mitigate anticipated outbreaks’ severity, its practical implementation indecision-making remains insufficiently explored. Through in-depth stakeholder interviews, our team investigate the underlying reasons contributing to the successes and shortcomings of EWS technologies. Using insights of this work, I developed an agent-based model to quantify the influence of the EWS on dengue transmission. Our goal of reducing dengue burden can be achieved when our EWS has been widely utilized for its intended purpose.